We’re At The Peak, Prepare For Collapse

A decade ago I hired a researcher to pull some information for me. I paid her a small sum to find information on what happened to the people after their society collapsed.

For example, what happened to the Mayan people after their civilization collapsed? Likewise, where did the Ancestral Puebloan populations go after they abandoned their pueblo dwellings?

“Shitting” where we eat all over the world is killing the environment.

She found some information, it was inconclusive, but it got my mind turning. What would happen if our society, our civilization, and our way of life collapsed?

As a former civil engineer, my team and I always joked about the toilets not flushing in New York City. We’d say that the place would be abandoned in days. We’d laugh at how society would finally pay us the respect we desire because we kept your shit flowing away from you and brought you clean water to drink.

Then I watched in horror as Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans, cutting off escape for people who couldn’t get out. In a matter of three days, a modern US city collapsed. No drinking water, no food, and no security. Gangs roamed the streets, looting happened, and I’m sure people were assaulted.

It showed me how delicate and thin the line between civilized society and breakdown is.

Years ago I read Jared Diamond’s book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. It’s a fascinating book that theorizes how past civilizations collapsed because of one or more contributing five factors. Those are:

1. Climate change
2. Hostile neighbors
3. The collapse of essential trading partners
4. Environmental problems
5. How their society respond to the four factors

One theory for the disappearance of the Ancient Puebloan culture is that a massive drought may have forced them to collapse. Droughts and sudden swings in the climate are always big factors (hint hint).

Of course, hostile neighbors and the loss of a critical trading partner make a lot of sense. If you can’t get your rare earth minerals from China, maybe you can’t build your technology (hint hint).

…I’d say we’re closer to a collapse around 2030.

Soil denudation and the loss of arable land becomes a big problem for food and oxygen production if you’re busy cutting down the Amazon rainforest. “Shitting” where we eat all over the world is killing the environment (hint hint).

Political and general societal indifference to the problem is the last big factor. Most people don’t give a shit (hint hint). Ask any member of a certain political group and they’d say that climate change is a hoax.

If you ask me, we got all five factors staring us in the face, right now. A big red alert is blaring and everyone is wondering who the Kardashians are going to date next.

In 1972 a simulation model and the book “The Limits to Growth” was published. This work was commissioned by a group of businessmen called The Club of Rome. They were interested to see how various factors, such as industrial output, population, and pollution would affect economic growth patterns.

The model made several assumptions but a few of those simulations, the more realistic ones, point to a peak for humans around the year 2040.

…you’ll need walls and guns to protect your life.

The combinations of population growth, food production, industrial output, consumption of non-renewable resources, and increase in pollution show that growth will quickly drop off around 2040.

What this model doesn’t include, because it was from the 70s, is climate change and updated population growth. If you were to add those things into the model, I’d say we’re closer to a collapse around 2030.

Key:

1. FPC — Food production
2. POP — Population growth
3. PPLOX — Pollution system
4. IPOC — Industrial output
5. NRFR — Nonrenewable resource consumption

We’re at the peak. How fast we slide down the other side remains to be seen.

Have another drink, it’s the last call for us.

I wanted to write a book from the research I found, a guide on how to rebuild society after the coming collapse. This was before I saw what Hurricane Katrina did and how people reacted.

I used to believe in the nobility and kindness of our fellow citizens. Now? Not so much.

If climate change and many factors point toward a peak and possible collapse in my lifetime, I will start preparing. I might not survive the collapse but I got kids to think about.

Now, I’m not a doomsday prep guy, I try to be reasonable. I realize that people turn into violent shits when they can’t eat, can’t drink water, or can’t shower. Add in more people in closer proximity to one another and you’ll have a recipe for disaster.

We can’t help ourselves. We really can’t.

The solution is to get away from everyone. Head out to the woods, to the mountains, anyplace where there isn’t a city but a lot of space between people. Gather your friends, of like-minded people that you can trust, and form your own tribe.

Then learn to homestead. Learn to grow plants from collected seeds. Build your own septic systems and water production systems. Store food. Live life with your community on the terms you all wish to live with.

You will need to build your own community to survive and thrive in a collapsed world, and sadly, you’ll need walls and guns to protect your life.

I wrote the last paragraph with deep sadness. I’m a peaceful man but I’m also a realist. No matter how open I’d love for this post-collapse utopia to be, there will be shits that want to take it. They’ll want to exert their dominance over it and destroy it.

Of course, the big variable is how much of the human population would remain. If 10% of the US population were to remain, roughly 32 million, perhaps there would be enough room for everyone to live peacefully.

That’s wishful thinking.

In the end, the cycle of violence and overconsumption will repeat itself.

We can’t help ourselves. We really can’t.

The storm is coming—will you be ready?

History has shown us that civilizations rise and fall, and the signs of collapse are all around us. You don’t have to face it alone. Join The Weathered Publication, a community of thinkers, doers, and realists preparing for what’s next. It’s free to sign up, and together, we can build resilience in an uncertain world.